The Relationship of Growth, Current Deficit and Inflation: A Review on Turkey
Chapter from the book:
Eroğlu Sevinç,
D.
&
Yüce Akıncı,
G.
(eds.)
2023.
Studies on Economic and Financial Policies.
Synopsis
This research examines the relationship between growth, current account deficit and inflation with the annual data of 1974-2021. In the research, impulse-response and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model was applied. The findings show that economic growth reacts in a short-term (1-2 years) negative and decreasing way in the event of a shock in the current account deficit. In addition, the current account deficit reacts negatively to the economic growth shock. The next important determinant after the forecast error variance in the current account deficit shock is economic growth. Although the current account deficit affects the growth negatively in Turkey, it has been concluded that economic growth brings the current account deficit together. The effects of inflation are statistically insignificant. The results are in line with theory and literature. In this case, growth-oriented foreign trade policies should be implemented meticulously. Considering the fact that Turkey grows with the support of imports, it should be taken into account that every growth has a current account deficit cost.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Hayriye Esra Akyüz- Güven Güney- Serhat Alpağut- Deniz Sevinç- Aylin Koca- Merter Akıncı- Haktan Sevinç- Ömer Yılmaz- Nermin Güney- Sertaç Hopoğlu- Sefa Özbek- Ali Çelik- Ayşe Arı- Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat- Hasan Tansoy- İsmail Hakkı Kofoğlu- Adem Türkmen- İkram Yusuf Yarbaşı- Mehmet Öksüz- İlkay Badurlar- Arife Özdemir Höl- Hasan Alpago- Tuğba Dayıoğlu- Gönül Yüce Akıncı- Fatma Mumcu Küçükçaylı- Demet Eroğlu Sevinç- Behçet Doğan Oktaş; Demet Eroğlu Sevinç- Gönül Yüce Akıncı