Market Linkages and Their Impact on G7 Economies: Exploring Network Connectedness
Chapter from the book:
Ertürkmen,
G.
(ed.)
2024.
Academic Analysis in Macroeconomics.
Synopsis
This project departs from the well-established finding in macrofinance literature that financial variables have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables. Building on this, we investigate the volatility connectedness among the stock markets of the Group of Seven (G7) countries, which account for a significant portion of global economic output and stock market capitalization. Using the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index (DYCI) framework, we analyze the connectedness of the G7 stock markets over the period from January 2010 to June 2024. We assess how volatility spills across these markets, particularly in response to major global events such as the 2011 U.S. credit rating downgrade, the 2013 "Taper Tantrum," the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings reveal that market connectedness is highly dynamic, with the U.S. consistently acting as the primary connectedness source, followed by Germany and France during times of market stress. Japan, in contrast, is predominantly a net receiver of volatility. The results further highlight the varying roles of the G7 markets in volatility connectedness, indicating limited roles for the UK, Italy and Canada. The study also explores the relative importance of each market as a shock propagator, finding that the U.S. has the highest shock propagation capacity, while Japan consistently has the lowest. Consistent with the literature, our findings reveal a strong relationship between market volatility and the macroeconomic policy impacts of G7 economies, particularly during key market and economic episodes. These insights contribute to the understanding of economic and financial market interaction and provide valuable implications forpolicymakers and investors navigating the interconnected global markets.