Empirical Analysis of the Validity of the J Curve Effect in the Turkish Agricultural Sector
Chapter from the book: Akça, H. & Ata, A. Y. & Yurdadoğ, V. (eds.) 2023. Economic Policies and Transformation from Theory to Practice II.

Mustafa Ildırar
Çukurova University
Ahmet Yılmaz Ata
Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University
Tuğçe Dallı
Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University

Synopsis

Agriculture sector is one of the basic sectors that affects many factors such as meeting humanity's nutritional needs, providing raw materials to the industrial sector, employment, exports and growth. The J curve hypothesis states that increases in the exchange rate will worsen the foreign trade balance in the short term and improve it in the long term.

The aim of this study is to test whether the J curve effect is valid in the Turkish agricultural sector in the period 1996-2021 with the ARDL method. According to the analysis findings, the fact that the real exchange rate is negative in the short term, positive and statistically significant in the long term shows that the J-curve effect is valid in the period examined in Türkiye. According to this finding, it is thought that policy makers' implementation of policies based on price competition in agricultural foreign trade will positively affect agricultural foreign trade.

How to cite this book

Ildırar, M. & Ata, A. Y. & Dallı, T. (2023). Empirical Analysis of the Validity of the J Curve Effect in the Turkish Agricultural Sector. In: Akça, H. & Ata, A. Y. & Yurdadoğ, V. (eds.), Economic Policies and Transformation from Theory to Practice II. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub294.c1283

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Published

October 21, 2023

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