
Empirical Analysis of The Relationship Between Financial Indicators and International Migration: The Case of Turkey
Chapter from the book:
Kılıç,
E.
(ed.)
2025.
Finance Research in the Perspective of Current Topics and Techniques.
Synopsis
This study empirically investigates the relationship between national financial indicators and international migration flows in the Turkish context. In this context, financial development index and financial globalization index, which are national financial indicators, and refugee population and asylum-seeker flows, which are international migration dynamics, are analyzed using Johansen Cointegration Test and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test. As a result of the analysis, cointegration relationship is found for the model consisting of financial development, refugee population and asylum seeker flow. This finding implies that the level of financial development and international migration in Turkey move together in the long run and reveals the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between these time series. On the other hand, no long-run cointegration relationship is found for the model consisting of financial globalization, refugee population and asylum seeker flow. The Toda Yamamoto Causality Test reveals that there is no Granger causality relationship from national financial indicators to international migration variables, either in the right or in the opposite direction. This finding implies that past values of financial indicators (international migration) do not provide useful prior information about current and future values of international migration (financial indicators). Overall, the findings are expected to provide a better understanding of the linkages between the financial ecosystem and international migration flows in Turkey and help policymakers to make decisions based on empirical findings.