The Impact of Inflation on Real Tax Revenues in Türkiye
Chapter from the book: Ayyıldız, Y. & Demirli, Y. & Şahin, S. (eds.) 2024. Inflation and Public Finance (Theory-Policy-Practice).

Anıl Eralp
Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal University

Synopsis

This study aims to examine the impact of inflation on real tax revenues within the Türkiye’s economy. While inflation typically increases nominal tax revenues because of rising general price levels, it simultaneously contributes to the erosion of real tax revenues. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the case of indirect taxes, which are extremely sensitive to inflation. Although nominal tax revenues increase, this growth does not correspond to a proportional rise in real revenues due to delays in tax collection and the erosive effects of inflation. The study investigates the influence of inflation on tax revenues across low, medium, and high inflation regimes. Employing the Discrete Threshold Regression model, the analysis spans the period from 2006Q1 to 2024Q1. The findings indicate that inflation exerts a negative impact on tax revenues at low levels but a positive effect under high inflation regimes, a pattern potentially explained by the concept of inflation tax. Moreover, the positive contribution of economic growth during high-inflation periods and the adverse impact of increased money supply are areas warranting further investigation, particularly in the context of income inequality and the informal economy. In conclusion, the findings underscore the necessity of implementing structural changes in conjunction with macroeconomic policies to mitigate the adverse effects of inflation and enhance the efficiency of the tax system, thereby ensuring the sustainability of public finance.

How to cite this book

Eralp, A. (2024). The Impact of Inflation on Real Tax Revenues in Türkiye. In: Ayyıldız, Y. & Demirli, Y. & Şahin, S. (eds.), Inflation and Public Finance (Theory-Policy-Practice). Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub562.c2262

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Published

December 19, 2024

DOI