The Consumer Confidence Index, which is announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) every month, aims to measure consumers' spending and saving tendencies by focusing on their individual financial situations and future expectations. The main motivation of this study was to reveal the relationship between loan interest rate, inflation, USD exchange rate variables and consumer confidence index, which are thought to be decisive for consumers, and to examine how the determinant variables affect consumer confidence.

The study aimed to test a long-term significant relationship between the consumer confidence index and consumer loans, housing loans, vehicle loans, inflation and exchange rates, and monthly data for the periods 2012:M5-2023:M9 were used. For this purpose, the relationship between the variables was tested with the Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test, which considers the structural break. After detecting significant relationships, long-term coefficients of the variables were estimated using Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods. In addition, the relationships between the consumer confidence index and its sub-indices and consumer loans, housing loans, vehicle loans, inflation and exchange rates were examined by correlation analysis, and the relationships between the indicators were evaluated in detail both statistical and econometric.