Forecasting Financial Pressure in Türki̇ye With Key Indicators
Synopsis
In recent years, the negative effects of financial crises and financial pressure on the economic system have become an important area of research. This increased interest is closely related to the fact that financial pressure can lead to economic crises. While these crises prevent investors from making rational decisions, they also make it difficult for policy makers to manage the economy effectively. For these reasons, measuring and analyzing financial pressure with the right components can contribute to the prevention of financial crises. Various factors such as exchange rate, capital market, inflation, country risk, stock market, external debt are of vital importance for a country's economy and correct decisions need to be made regarding these factors. The aim of this study is to create a financial pressure index with certain components to measure financial pressure in Turkey. Components such as inflation, external debt, capital market, country risk and money market were used when creating the Financial Pressure index. The principal component method was used to calculate the financial pressure index. The findings of the study show that periods of economic recession in Turkey are closely related to periods of increased financial pressure. For example, due to the impact of the global financial crisis in 2009, the level of financial pressure increased. The level of financial pressure decreased in 2010, but increased again due to the 2013 Gezi Park protests. Between 2014 and 2018, the financial pressure index fell below zero, but rose again in 2018 due to speculative attacks on exchange rates. During periods when the financial pressure index generally showed a downward trend, it reached a historical record level in 2020 with the global COVID-19 epidemic. Finally, the causality relationship between the industrial production index and the financial pressure index was examined in the study. The analysis results show that there is a mutual causality relationship between the two variables, but indicate that the causality is stronger from the industrial production index to the financial pressure index.