Measuring the Risk of Financial Failure of Air Transport Companies in Turkey
Chapter from the book:
Şahin,
C.
(ed.)
2024.
Current Financial Developments and Practices.
Synopsis
The objective of this study is to assess the financial failure risk of Turkish Airlines (THY) and Pegasus, which operate in the airline transport sector and whose shares are traded on Borsa Istanbul (BIST), in the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019), pandemic period (2020-2021) and post-pandemic period. Accordingly, the risk of financial failure of Turkish Airlines (THY), the flag carrier of Turkey, which applies the traditional business model, and Pegasus, which applies the low-cost business model, for the period 2018-2023 were evaluated with the Altman Z-score, Springate S-score and Fulmer H-score models. The Altman Z-score model was employed to analyse the financial stability of Turkish Airlines (THY) prior to the onset of the pandemic in 2018. The findings indicated that the risk of financial failure was uncertain during this period and in 2020. In the initial year of the pandemic period (2020), the risk of financial failure was high. In the subsequent year (2021), the risk was again high, but by the post-pandemic period (2022-2023), it had become uncertain. The financial failure risk associated with Pegasus was initially uncertain during the pre-pandemic period but subsequently increased during the pandemic period, before becoming uncertain once more in the post-pandemic period. The Springate S-score model yielded the following results: Turkish Airlines (THY) exhibited a high risk of financial failure in all years except 2018, while Pegasus demonstrated a consistently high risk of financial failure throughout the entire period. The results of the Fulmer H-score model analysis indicate that THY is likely to experience minimal financial failure risk over the entire period, whereas Pegasus is expected to face a significantly higher risk of financial failure.