The Relationship of Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of Türkiye
Synopsis
With the collapse of the Berlin Wall between East Germany and West Germany at the end of the 1980s and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the trend of globalization gained momentum. In the more liberal national and international markets, macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, foreign trade and economic growth have started to gain more importance and there has been a significant increase in studies in these areas in the literature. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of terms of trade and real exchange rate on economic growth in the Turkish Economy for the period of 2000-2018. Real gross domestic product, real capital stock, employment, terms of trade and real effective exchange rate variables were used in the analyzes using time series econometrics methods. In this context, first of all, exchange rates, foreign trade and economic growth theories were examined, literature review was made, the historical development of the Turkish economy was examined chronologically, and finally, econometric analysis was included in the study. According to empirical results; while real gross domestic product is negatively affected by the increases in real exchange rates, it is positively affected by the increases in real foreign trade volume. In addition, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the rate of increase in foreign trade volume and real economic growth. These results emphasize the importance of stable real exchange rate movements in maintaining foreign trade volume and economic growth.