Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Relationship between Investor Sentiment and CDS Premiums: The Case of Turkey
Chapter from the book:
Yürük,
M.
F.
&
Buğan,
M.
F.
(eds.)
2023.
Evolution of Financial Markets- III.
Synopsis
Confidence indices and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are followed by investors and decision makers and are considered as leading indicators. In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between confidence indices, which are considered as one of the indicators of investor sentiment, and CDS premium, which represents foreigners' confidence in the economy, for the period 05/2012- 08/2023 in Turkey. The variables of consumer confidence index (CCI), economic confidence index (ECI), real sector confidence index (RSCI), financial services confidence index (FSCI) and Turkey's 5-year credit risk premium (CDS) are used in the study and the Unit Root Test Based on Residuals Extended Least Squares (RALS) Method (RALS-ADF) is used in addition to conventional unit root tests for stationarity. The causality relationship is tested with Hacker-Hatemi (2006) Symmetric Causality and Hatemi-J (2012) Asymmetric Causality analyses that distinguish between positive and negative shocks. The results of the Hacker-Hatemi (2006) symmetric causality test reveal a bidirectional causality between the CDS premium and the CDS premium, and a unidirectional causality from CDS premiums to the RSCI and the ECI. The results of the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test, on the other hand, show the expected and statistically significant results from negative shocks of ECI and RSCI to positive shocks of CDS premium, from positive shocks of RSCI and ECI to negative shocks of CDS premium, and from positive shocks of CDS premium to negative shocks of FSCI, RSCI and ECI. In general, these results suggest that the confidence indicators of Turkish consumers, financial institution managers and especially producers in the Turkish economy and the confidence indicators of foreigners in the Turkish economy affect each other.